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August 2023
Dear Readers,
For our mid-summer edition of GED Monthly, we draw your attention specifically to our Country Summer Series, in which we analyse political events in selected EU countries less than a year before the 2024 European elections. Countries covered so far are Poland, France, Germany, Spain and the Netherlands.
We also take stock of an eventful NATO summit in Lithuania, before shedding some light on Germany’s new China strategy.
We conclude with an assessment of the future of the Transatlantic Trade and Technology Council (TTC) and a short report of the annual conference of the European Confederation of Independent Trade Unions (CESI), which focussed on how to green Europe’s economy whilst leaving no one behind.
With warm wishes,
Stephan Vopel and Malte Zabel
Director and Co-Director
Europe’s Future Program
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Polish Elections in the Shadow of Russian Aggression
The date of the next parliamentary elections in Poland, the sole prerogative of the Polish president, has finally been set. Andrzej Duda announced that Poles will cast their ballots on October 15th, to elect members of both chambers of Parliament (the Sejm and the Senate). Our guest writer Bartosz M. Rydlinski analyses the state of play, which include roles for Hungary and Russia and the matter of a populist referendum.
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Pension Reform in France: Balancing Work and Workers
The combination of aging demographics and declining birth rates has many European leaders worried about their future workforce. In France, this concern resulted in political chaos when constitutional provision 49.3 was invoked by the country’s Prime Minister in March. We take a look at the pension reform and re-industrialization efforts of the Macron government.
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Germany’s Far-Right Resurgence and the European Elections
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz assumed power two years ago on the back of an ambitious coalition agreement focused on long-awaited domestic reforms. Yet new polling reflects German voters’ dissatisfaction, and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is trending upward at an alarming, unprecedented rate. We analyse the resurgence of Germany’s hard right.
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Locked in Limbo: Uncertainty Reigns After Spanish Election
Spain took to the polls last month to elect a new government. While the voter turnout reflected the stakes at play (both high) the results indicate that political stability appears a distant prospect, with implications for the course of the European Union. We set out the murky political landscape, the role of separatist kingmakers and the prospects of a re-run pf the election.
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Turbulence in The Netherlands After Mark Rutte’s Resignation
Prime minister Mark Rutte’s four-party coalition collapsed in June over differing views on asylum policy, particularly family reunification rights. Rutte then surprisingly announced that he would not run in the upcoming snap elections and instead retire from politics. We analyse the significance of a turbulent Dutch summer.
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Four Key Takeaways from the 2023 NATO Vilnius Summit
The 2023 NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, was poised to be a pivotal gathering. Themes ranged from the ongoing war in Ukraine, security guarantees for Kyiv, and the country’s hopes for NATO accession to defense spending among member states, Sweden’s held-up membership bid, and an increasing focus on China and the Asia-Pacific region. Here are four takeaways.
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Why Germany’s New China Strategy is More Than Just That
Germany’s first ever China Strategy is a symbol of a Zeitenwende in the relations between Germany and China. In the process of shaping the Strategy, however, the coalition government struggled hard to find common ground and struck a rather pragmatic compromise in the end. We analyse the new approach by looking ourselves, at China and at what got lost on the way.
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TTC: EU-U.S. Cooperation in a Geo-economic World
The Transatlantic Trade and Technology Council has proven to be an effective format for transatlantic cooperation and has delivered tangible outcomes. Despite its achievements to date, however, its future is uncertain. Starting with the outcomes of the latest ministerial meeting we assess its future prospects by asking if it’s a silver bullet, a toothless tiger or something in-between.
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Ensuring A Fair Green Transition: Insights from CESI 2023
We report back from this year’s two-day conference of the European Confederation of Independent Trade Unions (CESI) in Brussels, which focussed on Europe’s challenge of greening its economy. A common theme was supporting vulnerable groups and industries as the European Union, whilst at the same time playing to European strengths rather than emulating China.
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In the next edition
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In the next edition we will report on our latest Strategic Tool Box, which will focus on the EU Commission’s Global Gateway initiative, and also offer an assessment of the US’s take on critical minerals.
To keep abreast of our work, please keep an eye on our blog: globaleurope.eu
Or follow us on social media: http://twitter.com/GED_Tweet
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