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January 2023
Dear Readers,
Our first edition of GED monthly continues our tradition of offering an outlook on the key events most likely to shape the year ahead. Naturally, we will provide analysis of each theme throughout the year, starting in today’s edition with an assessment of 30 years of the EU’s single market.
We also look at another anniversary, namely 60 years of Franco-German friendship as signified by the Elysée Treaty, before turning to recent developments in the EU’s cohesion policy. A final article provides a detailed outlook for 2023 in purely economic terms, highlighting how inflation looks set to remain with us for some time.
With warm wishes,
Stephan Vopel and Malte Zabel
Director and Co-Director
Europe’s Future Program
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12 Major Events that Will Shape Europe and the World in 2023
As 2023 kicks off, we continue our tradition of offering an outlook on the events most likely to impact European and world affairs, collated by our team of experts. These include the anniversary of the single market (see right), the transition to a confrontational security order, China’s National Security Congress, the future of EU-UK relations, the next G20 summit and COP28.
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The EU’s Single Market at 30: Celebration and Improvement
Around 450 million people, a GDP of about 15 trillion euros and the freedom to move goods, services, capital, and people across borders: That’s the European Single Market as we know it today. As it celebrates its 30th anniversary, this it is a good moment to reflect on its goals and benefits, its gaps, and the challenges that lie ahead.
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The Franco-German “Engine” 60 Years After the Elysée Treaty
January 22 marks the 60th anniversary of the Franco-German Treaty of Friendship (“Elysée Treaty”). Less than 20 years after the end of World War II, it twinned German and French cities, found¬ed the Franco-German Youth Office and allowed for mutual government consultations. Decades of enmity and war were followed by institutionalised friendship. We assess the state of play.
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3 Times EU Cohesion Policy Has Been Used to Address Crises
The EU channels up to €350bn into its Cohesion Policy, aiming to increase the prosperity of poorer EU regions towards the levels of the wealthiest. However, over the past three years, cohesion funds have regularly been used beyond their designed purpose to address crises. We assess the implications of this development.
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Climate Protection and Industry Support: CBAM insufficient
The negotiations at this year’s UN Climate Change Conference (COP27) showed that the EU must lead the way in climate protection and cannot rely on other countries to follow at the same pace. But globally differing climate policy efforts increase the risk that companies will relocate their CO2-intensive activities from the EU to third countries with less stringent climate policies.
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European Economic Outlook 2023: In the Grip of Inflation
The year 2022 was characterized by shortages and rising prices. In the winter of 2022/23, high energy prices, in particular, dampened economic development, so a recession is expected in the European Union in the coming months. From summer 2023 onwards, slight economic growth is possible but depends to a large extent on the level of energy supply achieved during the winter of 2023/24.
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In the next edition
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We will look at Public Procurement as a strategic tool for European economic policy and offer an assessment of Europe’s economic dependencies.
To keep abreast of our work, please keep an eye on our blog: globaleurope.eu
Or follow us on social media: http://twitter.com/GED_Tweet
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