On Thursday, June 19, the Bertelsmann Stiftung will be welcoming German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Tunisian Prime Minister Mehdi Jomaa to the Germany – Tunisia conference in the Bertelsmann Stiftung conference center in Berlin. Topics to be addressed at the event include the changes that have taken place in Tunisia since the Arab Spring and the ouster of President Ben Ali in 2011, and how those changes are impacting relations between the two countries. In conjunction with the conference, the Bertelsmann Stiftung is presenting "Fact Check: Tunisia," which combines findings from the foundation's BTI transformation index and its Connecting Europe project. The complete analysis is available here.
The wave of political unrest that hit North Africa in 2011 fueled hopes that democratic change was possible in Arab countries. These initially high expectations have since given way to sobering realities in several countries as nascent democratic institutions have been undermined by state fragility (Libya) or exploited and misused by powerful leaders (Egypt). But the mark of democracy has not been erased from North Africa. The beacon of democracy shines all the brighter in Tunisia as the problems in neighboring countries intensify. Indeed, the capacity for consensus-building is yielding impressive results in Tunisia.
According to the Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI) 2014, which measures the progress made toward democracy and a socially just market economy in 129 developing and transformation countries, Tunisia jumped from rank 100 in the BTI 2012 to rank 64 in the BTI 2014, achieving an overall increase of 1.95 points – the largest gain made by any country in the BTI ranking. The adoption of a new constitution in January 2014 marks another democratic milestone for Tunisia.
Tunisia's National Constituent Assembly passed the new constitution with an approval of 90% of its members. This historic vote came about on the heels of a long deliberative process involving a broad spectrum of stakeholders and the participation of civil society groups. By foregoing a rushed and conflict-ridden constitutional draft process, Tunisia's leaders were able to design a constitution that unifies rather than divides and therefore stands as a strong example for other Arab countries. Equality for men and women before the law is anchored in Article 20 of the constitution. Basic social rights such as the right to health, education, water and work are also explicitly established. Rights essential to a democratic culture of debate, such as the freedom of expression and the right to assemble, are also ensured by the constitution.
Following Ben Ali's ousting in January 2011, Tunisians seized their newfound opportunity for political activity by establishing several new parties and civil society organizations. By January 2013, Tunisia recorded 140 new parties and 1,300 organizations (BTI 2014, pp. 14-16). However, an increase of this magnitude in new parties and organizations also bears the risk of political fragmentation, especially in the absence of a strong centrist party. Indeed, tensions between Tunisia's reformist islamist Ennahda party and the secular conservative Nidaa Tounes seemed at first unreconcilable, fanning fears of a political polarization capable of engendering violence. However, both parties, looking to events unfolding in Egypt, opted for a more pragmatic course. First, Ennahda witnessed how quickly an islamic party can falter. Second, both parties saw how rapidly ideological polarization can tailspin into violence. Third, both parties needed a compromise, as election forecasts saw neither party winning a stable majority. Fourth, the country's emergent civil society organizations and powerful labor unions in particular proved effective as participants in the national dialogue.
Similar to other North African countries caught up in the Arab Spring, political unrest and instability took its toll on the Tunisian economy as investments fell, and tourism and exports to Europe were doubly affected by the euro crisis. Tunisia's economic woes, coupled with its – in regional comparison – extensive health and education investments, weighed heavy on the national budget.
Despite these problems, Tunisia has entered into recovery in the last year. Europe's upswing, together with the devaluation of the Tunisian dinar against the euro, has driven an increase in the revenues drawn from Tunisia’s export economy. According the World Bank, foreign direct investment (FDI) in Tunisia has in just one year returned to the levels seen prior to the revolution of 2011. In addition, Tunisia has not lost ground on certain social indicators: unemployment has remained stable at 18%, and some 8% of Tunisians must survive on less than $2 per day (BTI 2014, pp. 18-19).
The Tunisian government faces considerable economic challenges. In order to generate enough good jobs for the population, the country needs to sustain a high economic growth rate of 6%. Tunisia's high youth unemployment rate is a major problem, as every third young Tunisian is jobless, according to the International Labour Organization. At rank 108 of 135 countries on the World Economic Forum's Gender Gap Report, Tunisia may be third best in the Arab world, but much more must be done if gender equality is to be ensured as stipulated in the country's new constitution. The government must also do more to support structurally weak regions and to prevent destabilization in the regions bordering Libya.
Tunisian leaders' capacity to steer transformation has shown clear improvement in recent months. In the wake of the 2011 revolution, radical salafist groups, political fragmentation and profound instability exacerbated social and religious conflicts. Since then, however, Tunisians have successfully defused tensions by engaging in a National Dialogue that helped the country achieve a broad consensus on their constitution. This dialogue included the participation of the two major parties of Ennahda and Nidaa Tounes as well as unions and civil society. How else could the National Constituent Assembly have passed the constitution in January by such an overwhelming majority of 90%? In contrast to Egypt, Tunisian leaders have demonstrated their capacity to learn from the experience of others by acknowledging that pragmatic debates over issues deliver far better solutions than do ideological trench wars. It remains to be seen, however, just how sustainable this pragmatism is and whether it can survive upcoming elections scheduled for the end of 2014.
In an effort to support the country during this crucial period of transformation, Germany's Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development supports Tunisia in 2012/2013 with €250 million, in particular in the development of undeveloped regions and the improvement of employment opportunities for the youth. Moreover, the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development promotes small and medium sized companies and good governance. In January 2012, the German Foreign Office in Berlin established a transformation partnership with Tunisia. By providing funding for more than 100 projects with a total €50 million, Germany's federal government is supporting Tunisia in efforts to strengthen democracy, the rule of law, media, civil society, professional development, employment, and educational and cultural cooperation. The EU also supports Tunisia through its European Neighbourhood Policy with a series of aid projects. Economically, the EU is Tunisia's most important trading partner: according to the EU Commission, the trade volume between the two reached €20.6 billion in 2012. Some 70% of Tunisia's imports come from the EU, and 80% of Tunisia's exported goods go to Europe.
The milestone marked by Tunisia's new constitution should not result in Germany or Europe letting up on its support for the transformation process still underway. Christian-Peter Hanelt of the Bertelsmann Stiftung calls instead for a stronger European engagement, as Tunisia faces the next milestone of democratization in 2014: ensuring free fair parliamentary and presidential elections.
The BTI 2014 report on Tunisia can be found here.
For more information on developments in the Middle East and North Africa click here.
Please note: Tickets for the Germany – Tunisia conference on Thursday, June 19, in Berlin are no longer available.
