Population development in Germany to vary greatly by region until 2040

Many municipalities will face major challenges in the coming years as a result of demographic developments. First and foremost, German society will continue to grow older, exacerbating the shortage of skilled workers that already exists. Together with increasing or decreasing populations, these shifts will put further pressure on local infrastructure.

Changes in population sizes will vary throughout Germany between 2020 and 2040. The number of inhabitants will grow over the next 20 years in some states and fall markedly in others. Those are some of the findings from the new population forecast for 2040 carried out for our Wegweiser Kommune (Community Roadmap) data portal. According to the forecast, population changes in the 13 larger states will range from +4.6 percent in Baden-Württemberg to –12.3 percent in Saxony-Anhalt. Significant population growth will also be seen in the city-states of Berlin and Hamburg, at 5.8 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively, while the city-state of Bremen will grow more moderately, at 1.1 percent. Among Germany's independent cities, Leipzig, Potsdam and Bamberg can expect increases of more than 10 percent, something that also applies to the rural districts of Biberach, Mühldorf am Inn and Kelheim. At the other end of the spectrum, only districts and independent cities in the eastern states are expected to experience population declines of 12 percent or more.

In coming decades, the rising number of people entering retirement age will play a key role. The increased ageing of the population will have a significant impact on the potential size of the workforce, on pension programs and on the need for nursing care. The share of people aged 65 or older in the general population was just under 22 percent in 2020, but is expected to reach almost 28 percent in 2040. "Despite all the regional differences, the increasing ageing of German society will be evident in almost all of the country’s communities," says Ralph Heck, chairman of our Executive Board. "Targeted strategies are needed now to build infrastructure suitable for older generations and to overcome the resulting economic challenges." 

More and more baby boomers will reach retirement age in the coming years. There will be fewer potential members of the workforce, and the number of people who can begin drawing a pension will rise markedly. The estimates show that the number of people in the first years of retirement, i.e. aged 65 to 79 years old, will increase significantly to some 16.2 million by 2035. (In 2020, there were only 12.3 million 65- to 79-year-olds). That means the share of this cohort in the total population will climb from 14.8 percent in 2020 to 18.4 percent in 2040. After that, fewer people will reach retirement age each year. As of 2027, the number of seniors aged 80 or older will grow significantly, rising from some 5.8 million in 2027 to around 7.7 million in 2040. The share of over-80s in Germany will reach 9.2 percent in 2040 as a result.

The ageing of German society is also evident in the shift in the median age, i.e. the age that divides the population into an older and a younger half. The median age is expected to increase nationally by 1.2 years by 2040. It will also rise in all of the country's states (except Saarland) by 2040, in several states by approximately 2 years. There will then be a difference of almost 10 years between the states, from approximately 43 years in Hamburg and Berlin to between 52 and 53 years in four of the five eastern states. At the district level, the difference between the oldest and youngest median ages will be 18.5 years, ranging from 57.3 years in Greiz to 38.8 years in Heidelberg.   

Municipal decision makers can use the forecasts to prepare their regional infrastructures for the demographic challenges expected in the coming years. Many regions will not be able to do this on their own without financial assistance from federal and state programs.